The science behind the burn-down charts

PeptideBuddy estimates how much of a compound is still active in your body using standard pharmacokinetic (PK) models. Here's exactly what the math does — and its limits.

1. Half-life and first-order elimination

Most drugs are cleared by first-order kinetics: a constant fraction is eliminated per unit time. The amount remaining follows exponential decay:

A(t) = A₀ · e^(−k·t),    k = ln(2) / t½

where is the elimination half-life and k is the elimination rate constant. After each half-life, half of what was present is gone. A practical rule of thumb: a drug is ~97% cleared after 5 half-lives.

Half-livesRemaining
150.0%
225.0%
312.5%
46.3%
53.1%

2. Absorption — why levels rise before they fall

Injected and oral compounds aren't instantly in your bloodstream — they're absorbed over time. We model this with the Bateman function (one-compartment, first-order absorption & elimination):

A(t) = (F·D·kₐ)/(kₐ−k) · (e^(−k·t) − e^(−kₐ·t))

F is bioavailability, D the dose, kₐ the absorption rate constant (derived from the time-to-peak, Tmax), and k the elimination rate. The curve climbs to a peak at Tmax, then decays. When Tmax is unknown we fall back to pure exponential decay.

Semaglutide-like · t½ 6.9 days
Liraglutide-like · t½ 13 h

Both show a single 100-unit dose. Note how the long-half-life compound lingers for weeks while the short one is gone in a couple of days.

3. Multiple doses and accumulation

Real regimens involve repeated doses. Under the linear-PK assumption, the total is simply the superposition (sum) of each dose's individual curve. If you dose again before the previous dose clears, the compound accumulates toward a steady state:

Accumulation ratio R = 1 / (1 − e^(−k·τ))

where τ is the dosing interval. For a weekly compound with a ~7-day half-life, R ≈ 1.98× — peak levels at steady state are roughly double a single dose, reached after ~4.9 weeks.

Weekly dosing, ~7-day half-life (6 doses)

Each week's dose stacks on the residue of previous ones; the troughs and peaks climb until input and elimination balance out.

4. What PeptideBuddy computes for you

  • The active amount on board right now, summed across all your logged doses.
  • A burn-down curve with a forward projection of when you'll be effectively cleared (<5%).
  • How many half-lives have elapsed since your last dose.
  • Relative body load as a % of a single dose, so different compounds are comparable.

Important limitations

These are simplified, single-compartment models. They ignore inter-individual variability, renal/hepatic function, non-linear (saturable) kinetics, active metabolites, tissue distribution, and assay differences. Half-lives for research peptides are often poorly characterized estimates. This tool is for education only and is not medical advice. Always consult a qualified clinician about your therapy.